There are as many ways to make money in the markets as there are people participating in the markets.
- Many of these methods of contradictory. The environment changes and advantages get arbitraged away.
- Negative advice > positive advice.
But there are relatively few ways to lose money in the markets.
- Psychological factors almost always more important than errors in analysis
- Key: avoid psychological errors using simple framework
Seeing life situations as a game
- College, Army, etc.
- The rules are set and you simply play by the rules. But always know that the rules are somewhat arbitrary and don't take them too seriously.
- Sometimes, you can take risks by breaking the rules. But be prepared to accept the consequences.
- If you enjoy a string of success, be careful. You might have just gotten lucky. Don't personalize your success/failures too much.
- You can control the process, but you cannot necessarily control the outcome.
- "From my trading and gambling experiences I have learned that the more the markets are treated as a game, the less likely you are to have losses due to psychological factors. Why? Games have rules and defined ending points. Their participants have a game plan."
Discrete events (e.g., games) vs continuous processes (e.g., markets)
- Games are discrete because they have a defined end point
- Markets can keep going...
External Loss vs Internal Loss